realpolitik

Source: The Hitavada      Date: 30 Mar 2018 12:15:02


Nakshatra Purvafalguni 7H 24M
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Paksha Chaitra Shukla Tithi Chaturdashi 19H 33M
Good Friday, Bhadra starts 19H.33M
Muslim Rajab 12th Hijree 1439


THE world’s geopolitical stage is about to witness a new drama unfold with the visit of Mr. Kim Jong-un, leader of North Korea, to meet Chinese supremo Mr. Xi Jinping under the shadow of American pressure in favour of denuclearisation. Mr. Kim Jong-un has assured reportedly that he would initiate the process of denuclearisation of North Korea, a point towards which United States President Mr. Donald Trump has been driving hard in tune with his predecessor Mr. Barack Obama’s policy. To that extent, the United States has some reason to feel good that its pressure has worked to certain extent, though with the Chinese mediation. What is in witness is the hard reality of international realpolitik in which complex alliances are forged and busted every passing minute even as nations follow their own perceptions of self-interest.
In this particular case, the assurance of denuclearisation may prove only to be a verbal exercise that will most probably have no bearing on fact. But with the North Korean assurance, the international drama now going on for quite some time might acquire an entirely new twist. Though the US is smart enough to know how smart deception often plays a critical role in diplomacy, let us only hope that the North Korean supremo implements his own assurance at least to an extent so that the unnecessary unease in Asian region would get somewhat taken care of. The US has been insisting upon dismantling nuclear weapons North Korea has built over time. Even if this is achieved in a small measure, it would mean showing a decent respect to the American wish and power.
Having known the North Korean posturing in this regard over time, it appears almost unlikely that Mr. Kim Jong-un would go full distance in denuclearising of the country. Given the spectacular success North Korea has achieved in its nuclear weapons programme, it sounds unlikely that a total denuclearisation would ever be undertaken. The United States, thus, will have to accept the reality and alter its emphasis or pretend to have believed North Korea. In real terms, both seem unlikely to happen. For, the US, too, is a hard nut to crack and is not likely to believe the unbelievable.


China seems to be an actual gainer in this whole game. For, Mr. Xi Jinping will acquire an upper hand, though for the purpose of demonstration to the world and would claim legitimate credit of having tamed the North Korean roar. This credit of having pushed North Korea towards a greater chance of peace will go a long distance in Chinese diplomatic game. Given the details, there is every reason to suspect that China and North Korea may form a joint front in Asian regional politics, thus ensuring that the United States stays a little distance away from actual meddling in regional affairs.


It is common knowledge that China has often supported North Korea vis-a-vis American political game. But as it plays the cards, China often appears tentative as against the consistency with which the United States has pursued its diplomatic interests in Asia. It is more than obvious that China does not appreciate the American meddling in Asian affairs. For, such an interference blocks the Chinese march in global politics, which Mr. Xi Jinping is never likely to appreciate.


The assurance of denuclearisation by Mr. Kim Jong-un, therefore, has to be understood in political terms. He may go for only a partial denuclearisation just to stave off the continuous American pressure at least for a while. China will play along, trying to maintain a balance between its American connect and North Korean partnership on multiple fronts. The future diplomatic game will, however, depend upon how the Americans perceive things.