Panchangs predict above average rainfall in India

Source: The Hitavada      Date: 07 Apr 2018 08:29:20


 

By Rajendra Diwe,

Many Panchangs (almanacs) published in different parts of the country have predicted average or above average monsoon this year in the country. The almanacs also have warned that there would not be a continuous spell of rains in many parts; also some states would get normal rains while many states would receive scanty rains or no rains. Though the monsoon will achieve a national average, many parts of the country would face drought-like situations and there would be loss of crops due to heavy to excess rains in many states, the almanacs stated.

The monsoon predictions are done on the basis of entry of Sun in Ardra Nakshatra. Barring some time difference of about five minutes to 30 minutes; all almanacs have mentioned “Sun will enter in Ardra Nakshatra on June 22, 2018 at 11.08 am (Rajandekar Panchang); after Sunrise on Dashmi Tithi, Friday, Chitra Nakshatra, Parigh Yoga and Taitil Karan. As entry in Ardra is on Friday, it will bring happiness, peace, satisfaction and strength to people in the country. There will be good crops, good rainfall in central part of India.”

Ardra Pravesh (entry of Sun in Ardra): Start of Monsoon:

The predictions for this time are as follows:

Day of the week: Friday.

Venus - very good for rainfall.

Tithi: Sukla Dasami - very good for rainfall.

Star: Chithra - Not good for rainfall.

Yoga: Parigha - Good for rainfall

Karana: Taitula - Good for rainfall

Lagna: Leo - Fiery sign - hot climate and less rains.

Kaala: 11.03 am - around noon - Bad for rainfall. Scorching effect.

Moon in watery signs - No.

Inference:
1.Verse of the year = Bad
2. Nava nayakas = Mixed (50%)
3. Megha = Very good.
4. Meghadhipati = Very good.
5. Ardra Pravesh = Venus as lord of the day is very good, but other features particularly time (kaala) at noon is not good.

Jayashree Sarnathan, a South Indian astrologer has predicted, “Venus is the only planet taking positive control of rainfall prospects. It also happens to be the Meghadhipati of the year dominated by Dro?a Megha. If supportive planetary features are there, the overall monsoon will be average or above average.”

The Hindu calendar for 2018-19 is known as Vilambi Nama Samvatsar:

Predictions: Vilambi means late, slow, delayed or measured. Rainfall will be in measured quantities. There is less agricultural produce. Ruler(s) would be disgraced. The rulers would have health issues. (Or there will be diseases in the country). Mean-mindedness would prevail. Not possible to utter the hardships faced by people.

Nava Nayaka:
Saturn is Mantri for rainfall means there is reduction in rainfall.

Venus is Arghadhipati for prediction of price level of agriculture products. Means plenty rainfall and stable to normal prices of agriculture products.

Moon is Sasyadhipati for prediction of growth of crops. Means monsoon will start on time. Good for agriculture.

Sun is Dhanyadhipati for prediction of grain production; Means there will be water scarcity and production of red coloured items will increase.

Megha of the year: The ‘cloud’ of the year is Dro?a Megha which brings heavy rainfall from troughs and in valley formation. Its direction is South East. If supported by planetary features, could give rise to cyclones in South East direction (Bay).

Meghadhipati: Venus is the Megahdhipati of the year indicating good cloud formation and plentiful rainfall.

Rajandekar Panchang, Date Panchang, Kalnirnaya Panchang, Ruikar Panchang and others from Maharashtra have warned people not to believe in average or normal monsoon. There are 12 Nakshatra directly responsible for rains. These cloud forming Nakshatras are not successful for many times to form clouds because of the exploitation of nature by human beings. Now-a-days, people get excessive rains in single day and after that a period of eight to 15 days is without rains. The IMD only calculates the ‘Normal’ ‘Scanty’ or ‘Below Average’ rainfall depending on the period. People should think seriously, why, the Nakshatra could not bring the results?

Chintaharan Jantri (Bhagyodaya Panchang) from Varanashi; Lok Vijay Panchang from Jabalpur; Bhuvan Vijay Panchang from Jabalpur; Kashivishwanath Panchang from Rishikesh; Bhavani Shankariya Nirnaya Sagar Chand Martand Panchang Shastra from Nimach etc have also stated that the monsoon style has become unpredictable. Karthe means a period of 13.5 days in which Sun transits to particular Nakshatra. During the movement, Sun occupies 13.5 days of that Nakshatra and during these days the respective Nakshatra is known as rain bearing Nakshatra. Cutting of trees has resulted in rise in temperature. The Sun in stay of 13.5 days in particular Nakshatra, helps to bear rains just for two to three days. Thus, the spell of continuous, non-stop rains could not be achieved. The disturbed spell of rains is observed since last 10 years.

Skymet predicts normal annual monsoon

A private forecast agency Skymet has predicted normal annual Monsoon rains at 100% (with an error margin of +/-5%) of the long period average (LPA) for the four-month period from June to September. There is 55% chance of normal rainfall, between 95 to 105% of LPA of 887 mm, for the Monsoon season, a report said. There is only 20% chance of above normal Monsoon rains, 20% chance of below normal rains and 0% chances of drought. The four-month long Monsoon season gives about 70% of the country’s annual rainfall. The key crop season ‘Kharif’ is primarily dependent on these rains, Skymet stated.

Looking at the month wise rainfall distribution, June would record 111% rains of the long period average. The onset month is likely to receive 182 mm of rains against the average of 164 mm. Thereafter, gradual warming of Pacific Ocean would result in devolving La Nina conditions that would slightly impact the performance of Monsoon in the following months. July and August may see comparatively lesser rainfall to the tune of 97% and 96% of LPA, respectively. Particularly, August might end up slightly below normal rains. July would record 280 mm of rain, while August would receive 250 mm. Withdrawal month of September would see increase in rains again to 101% of LPA and record normal rains of 175 mm against the normal of 173 mm, a forecast said.

Region wise performance:

JJAS: -Overall, the country would see normal rains except Southern Peninsula, along with major portion of Northeast India are likely to witness below normal rains this season.

Parts of East India, especially Bihar, Odisha, Jharkhand and West Bengal would receive good Monsoon rains. Northwest India is also likely to see normal rains this year.

Beginning with June, the onset month of Monsoon would give normal to above normal rains over the country, but parts of northeastern states and Tamil Nadu are likely to see less rains.

In July, normal Monsoon rains would be confined only to East, Central and Northwest India, while Peninsular and Northeast India are likely to be rain deficit.

August would be no different. In fact, Gujarat would too join the list of deficit areas along with South and Northeast India.

Picking up pace in September, Monsoon is likely to retreat from the country with normal rains, especially over Central and East India. However once again, parts of Kerala, Karnataka and Arunachal Pradesh would see deficient rains.

While marginal rain deficiency may not affect Northeast India, but deficit rains in Peninsular India can be the cause of worry for drought-stricken farmers and policy makers.

Not only this, Monsoon will also bring cheers for Indian agriculture. Above normal rains in June would ensure timely and higher sowing across the country. Although rains would witness a drop in July and August, would not be of much concern for farmers. September would again see rains reviving, which would further aide crop production.

IMD will come with its first forecast on monsoon in second half of April.