N HIS first term as the President of the United States, Donald Trump was described by Senator Ted Cruz as a “flash-bang grenade thrown into Washington by the forgotten men and women of America.” His no-compromise, quasi-authoritarian politics has ensured that Trump will not be easily forgotten, not just by America but also by the entire world. His stamp is becoming even more overbearing in the second coming as the world takes cover from the flurry of executive decisions being shot from the hip by the maverick POTUS. Transactional diplomacy remains at the core of Trump’s dealings which India measured with its own policies during Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s trip to Washington last week. The chemistry between Modi and Trump was of exceptional level, handing India an opportunity to buy more time to deal with many tricky subjects including tariffs and illegal immigration. The chemistry was minutely dissected by the world as the media and experts back home ranged their opinions between paeans and pejoratives for Prime Minister Modi.

 

The rapport between Modi and Trump and the play of words to praise each other certainly eased tensions around many threats as the deeply-forged Indo-US strategic partnership settled down to turn a new page in current geopolitics. Yet, the hazards of dealing with a global hegemon are too many to get complacent on the notion of a healthy personal camaraderie between heads of two States. The element of surprise and unpredictability in Trump’s behaviour hover over every deal and the diplomatic apparatus in New Delhi would constantly be on its toes while going ahead. Trump’s intentions clearly look to get a good bargain on many things benefitting the United States economy. He did it with Canada and Mexico by imposing heavy tariffs and putting a hold on the decision immediately after talks with their leaders.

 

A similar script is likely to be unveiled in the coming days for China. These rapidly changing slides flash a deep message for India as New Delhi counts the gains of the Prime Minister’s hard negotiations with the US President. The deal cut with America is still in an early stage with India taking a safe approach of cutting some tariffs on goods from the US. It will take some time when a clear procedure will be drawn between the two teams for a reciprocal arrangement. It will address the key issue of trade deficit and give India a good idea of the US thinking, which at present seems vacillating between victimhood and anger driven by Trump’s agenda. India will need to find the middle ground between the two emotions as it faces the big challenge of making Trump see reason in it.

 

The broader takeaways of the Modi-Trump bilateral are many for India to feel happy with. Top on the success tale is security cooperation which firmly establishes India in the US firmament of a military leader in whom Washington can put its full faith. The F-35 jets deal and energy, oil trade were products of a crafty negotiation pushed by the think-tank. Effects of these deals will reflect in South Asian geopolitics with a clear message to China. Yet, the Trump trait of a sudden outburst over tariffs and trade leaves the entire gamut of cooperation pretty vulnerable. What Prime Minister Modi’s visit to the US has made clear is, in Trump 2.0 India has elevated its status as a favoured nation for America but the riders, too, have multiplied due to the President’s MAGA (Make America Great Again) promise to his people. It makes it imperative for India to keep back-ups and alternatives ready with a defined policy of multi-alignments. New Delhi has successfully managed the new thinking by tapping old friends and staying put with them defying Western pressures. A multipolar world is a necessity to avert concentration of power with just one top country with economic heft. India is ardently championing the cause to avoid the anomaly of unipolar power.

 

It has built bridges of faith to connect with the Middle-East, the Gulf countries, the Global South and also the European countries. It is a major deviation from the Non-Alignment Movement practiced in the earlier times to keep India away from world conflicts. In the present era, remaining insulated from the global heat is very difficult and hence multi-alignments are necessary for India. What this entails is rankling the US plans of reclaiming hegemony under Trump. It is obvious that the spree of tariff sanctions and threats to punish nations “harming US interests” is a desperate attempt by President Trump to undo the perceived soft image of America under former President Joe Biden. Immediately after assuming office, Trump’s clear warning to BRICS was to stay away from challenging the American dollar. It stems from the same hegemonic thinking as he wants the plurilateral groups to exist but operate according to the US playbook. Such coercive moves pose a new challenge for India which seeks a zone of agreements with hard negotiation and dialogue.

 

So, for New Delhi, dealing with Trump 2.0 will need the right mix of soft and hard decisions. India must not look like overtly indulging in appeasement of the US. It has to be ready with counterbalances in face of Trump’s transactional aggression. The geostrategic position India enjoys in the Indo-Pacific must be leveraged at a higher plane. Given the possibility of a direct confrontation between the US and China, India’s current position in the changing global order and its rising economic weight gives it a voice to cut deals on its own terms. New Delhi has to reset its diplomatic compass for an ally which only believes in transactions, and which can easily become a ‘frenemy’ at any moment.