By Ashis Biswas 

 

 

 

 

 

FOR developing countries struggling economically to contain rising fuel, food and import costs in the post Ukraine war period, one positive sign of the times is that West-sponsored economic sanctions may not be as damaging as before. The experience of Russia and new emerging alignments within the world order suggest that no other country may face the kind of economic crippling that Cuba has had to endure for decades, mainly under unrelenting US pressure. This raises an interesting question: Has the West finally overplayed its ‘sanctions card’, which now includes the freezing of bank accounts of countries/ ruling regimes it perceives as hostile, without reference to international law/rules of business? It is not surprising that such generalisations about emerging world political trends in 2024 should be actively exercising/ engaging policymakers and analysts in Bangladesh. Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has just led the Awami League (AL) party for yet another five year term, following her election victory earlier this month. However, the outcome has not generated the usual exuberant jubilation/ euphoria even among the AL leaders, an unusual experience for a South Asian country. Major reason: led by the US and the UK, the mighty Western bloc of countries have expressed their reservations about the nature of the League’s victory.

 

In cautious post-election initial statements, the Anglosphere (five eyes group) US-dominated West has commented on complaints of rigging, intimidation and violence in some areas, while taking care not to rubbish the eventual poll outcome. Copious western tears have been shed over the eventual pullout, not for the first time, from the elections of the main pro-Jamat Opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), which abandoned its own pre-poll campaign midway. The comparatively lower percentage of overall voting at 44% has also been highlighted. Yet in their immediate post election observations to national and international media, Dhaka-based Western diplomats as well as numerous ‘Western’ observers admitted that they had not seen any electoral malpractice during their prolonged stay in the country, prior to and during the polling! Ms Hasina herself pointedly asked a few Western correspondents about the polling, seeking their views, unlike other major leaders in the sub continent. Again, there was no negative response -- but no appreciation, either. Nor was there any post -poll instance of screaming, hand-wringing Opposition leaders/ demonstrators running riot in Dhaka or Chattogram, in protest against the AL.

 

However, this is not to suggest that the polling was totally fair or free. Nobody can rule out the possibility of pre or post election intimidation campaigns in some areas or tampering with electoral rolls, in a South Asian country of nearly 170 million people. The East/West divide was clear in many other ways. India, China, Russia, all BRICS members, lost no time in congratulating the AL and its leaders. Mrs Hasina also referred to India’s consistent support to Bangladesh over the years, not to mention of India and Russia’s steadfast role during the country’s struggle for freedom. The strong political endorsement from the BRICS bloc has certainly boosted national morale in Dhaka. It was also a unique diplomatic initiative on part of the BRICS countries: matching hostile Western criticism and distrust at all stages of the elections -- before during and after -- Russia, India and China stood by Bangladesh move for move. To give only random examples: well before the outcome was announced, Russian diplomats had warned Bangladesh authorities that in case the AL won, the country should be prepared to face economic sanctions seeking to choke its export earnings from the garments sector from the West, on one pretext or another. In 2021-22, Bangladesh earned $42.6 billion from its garments exports, with the US/EU bloc accounting for over 90%.

 

Its earnings since have increased, according to reports. There could be fresh obstacles in Bangladesh receiving much help from the West in seeking advanced technological help, too. No wonder, Bangladeshi analysts have also confirmed such fears and are urging policymakers to take suitable steps. The process of making readjustments to fend off possible negative pressures from the West will not be easy, with Bangladesh forex reserves down to around $17/18 billion only from its earlier usual levels of between $38/42 billion until recently! In this situation, recent announcements from Delhi promising Bangladesh of continuing assistance for all ongoing bilateral connectivity and other projects could not be more welcome for Dhaka. Similarly, China has just announced that it will try step up its imports of Bangladeshi goods urgently, to narrow the existing trade gap. China has also extended an immediate invitation to Mrs Hasina to come for an official visit, to discuss future ties. In other words, Western sanctions or not, Bangladesh will not be left in a lurch. The world in 2024 has changed a lot since the sixties when US-imposed sanctions virtually crippled Cuba’s economy. And such major changes in these times will carry their own special message to developing countries in Asia and Africa, in 2024 and beyond. However, a word of caution for the ruling AL and its leaders now that they have won again, they must display more seriousness in addressing serious allegations of corruption, nepotism and money laundering among senior leaders /officials in domestic governance. (IPA)