HARYANA HEIST

 

MAKING short work of theanti-incumbency factor and yet again dodging the exit poll predictions, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is set for a historic third term in Haryana. The Assemblyelectionresultshavecomeasahuge surprise given the big edge pollsters had provided to the Congress.The premise was based on the Lok Sabha election results that had cut the BJP’s tally sharply and a repeat of electoral mood was expected in the Assembly elections. By dismantling the popular perception in Haryana and holding on to its stronghold in Jammu & Kashmir, the BJP has consolidated its position in the national polity as the first choice of the people. The electoral test in Haryana this time was really tough for the BJP.Under ChiefMinisterMr.NayabSinghSaini, who had assumed office just six months ago, the party had too much of anger to quell as issues of anti-incumbency, farmers’ protest, wrestlers’ anger and growing discontent over Central schemes were piling up.

 

The party played its strategy really well by choosing new faces to dodge the ten-year hangover, focused on the backward classes by raising annual income limit and consolidated the anti-Jat votes. The development plank which Prime Minister Mr. Narendra Modi harped upon during his rallies proved successful even as the Congress floundered in its strategy of caste politics. Despite being primed to win Haryana, the Congress was caught in its own trap by laying too much emphasis on Jat votes. It proved a wrong move as other communities rallied against the party and chose theBJP.TheCongress would also need to introspect on the senseless statements by Mr. Rahul Gandhi during his visit to the United States. His ‘promise’ of removing reservation in India was largely instrumental in the snub from backwardcommunitiesin theState.

 

The gamble ofrepeating the‘Constitution’ card in the Assembly elections too has backfired as the Dalit voters have shown that theydidnotcompletely deserttheBJP despitevoting against the party in Lok Sabha elections.The BJP can afford a big smile in J&K too where it held on toits Jammu stronghold to emerge as the secondlargest party. It will not form the government in the Union Territory but the BJP has ensured that it stays strong for a foray into the Valley. By opening up democratic process in J&K with the Assembly elections and guarding its Jammu citadel, the BJP has found a vehicle to take its policies and benefits of abrogation of Article 370 right till the grassroot level. In both the States, the BJP has proved its point by pipping Congress which was its direct opponent. Results in Haryana should come as a reality check for Congress as it dents the party’s ambitions of consolidating gains from the Lok Sabha verdict.Itstillhasalongway togobeforematching thestrategic planning and organisational strength of the BJP.

 

The Haryana verdict is now set to make bargaining difficult for theCongress in the upcoming elections in Maharashtra and Jharkhand. Its allies in Maharashtra, Shiv Sena (UBT) and Nationalist Congress Party (Sharad Pawar), would come up with a hard negotiation over seat-sharing after the reverses in Haryana. The decisive victory inHaryana and good show in J&K will give the BJP a big edge in national politics and added weight in Maharashtra. The party is still finalising seat distribution with allies Shiv Sena (Shinde) and NCP (Ajit Pawar) apart from accommodating its small allies. The Haryana heist will give the BJP a bargaining heft as Maharashtra is set to enter election mode very soon. The party will walk into the fray with a new spring in its step.