By Vikas Vaidya :
THE Maharashtra Assembly
election 2024 has become the
most unpredictable one with all
parties resorting to micro-planning to rule out mistakes committed in the previous elections.
Some constituencies in the
district, in last polls, registered
slender victory margins and
losing parties are working hard
to avoid a repeat of another
close call.
In previous two polls, in six
constituencies, the district
recorded tough contest with
many candidates registering
thin victory margins.
In 2019, in Nagpur South constituency, BJP’s Mohan Mate
emerged victorious with a victory margin of mere 4,013 votes
defeating his nearest rival Girish
Pandav of Congress.
Similarly, Bunty Shelke of
Congress had to face defeat by
a margin of 4,008 votes in
Nagpur Central in the same
election.
Mate could garner 84,339
votes while Pandav secured
80,326 votes. Mate not only
faced tough contest from
Congress but also feud within
BJP then. Several candidates
considered allies of BJP also
were in the fray. Sudhakar
Kohale, who won the elections
in 2014, was denied ticket in
2019. His resentment affected
Mate’s vote share.
Similarly, candidates like
Pramod Manmode, Kishor
Kumeria, Satish Holay also had
filed nominations.
Overcoming
these adverse circumstances,
Mate did emerge winner. Post defeat, optimistic
Pandav rebuilt his reputation
in the constituency by establishing public-connect. This
may come as a fresh challenge
for Mate in upcomming
Assembly polls as Pandav has
an edge while there is no rebellion as Kohale has been
compensated by BJP by giving him ticket from Nagpur
West Assembly constituency.
Similar was the outcome in
Nagpur Central Assembly
constituency in 2019 elections. Bunty Shelke had to face
defeat at the hands of Vikas
Kumbhare of BJP by a margin
of 4,013 votes. Shelke was then
a novice as far as Assembly
polls are concerned.
Kumbhare had secured 75,692
votes while Shelke could garner 71,684 votes. Shelke’s vote
share surprised everyone.
In 2019, None of The Above
(NOTA) option came into play.
It did make surprising impact
on the poll outcome in Nagpur
city. In Nagpur Central, 2,149
voters had opeted NOTA.
One more constituency —
Nagpur West — was missed
by political pundits.
They were
hopeful of Vikas Thakre taking advantage over Sudhakar
Kohale.
According to the citizens,
upcoming Assembly polls will
again witness close calls in
some of the constituencies.
It is assumed that Narendra
Jichkar factor is likely to work.
and if it works, Kohale will
have an advantage.
In 2019, Thakre won the
polls by only 6,367 votes. He
had polled 83,252 votes while
his nearest rival Sudhakar
Deshmukh secured 76,885
votes. Then there was antiincumbency.
This elections, BJP is trying
to reduce the margin to score
a victory.
In 2014, in Katol Anil
Deshmukh of Nationalist
Congress Party (NCP) had to
face defeat at the hands of his
elder paternal brother Ashish
Deshmukh of BJP by only
5,557 votes. Ashish had
secured 70,344 votes while
Anil Deshmukh could garner
64,787 votes. Ashish
Deshmukh rode on Modi
wave in that election which
was evident as in 2019 Anil
Deshmukh defeated BJP’s
Charan Singh Thakur by over
17,000 votes.
In Saoner which is the
stronghold of Sunil Kedar had
to face tough fight from Shiv
Sena’s Vinod Jivtode in 2014
when Kedar could secure a
victory margin of 9,000 votes.
Kedar won that polls but not
in his own style.
In North Nagpur in 2014 Dr
Milind Mane of BJP scored
victory but the margin was
not very impressive.
Shockingly, the formidable
candidate like Dr Nitin Raut
had to remain satisfied at 3rd
spot. Kishor Gajbhiye, a former IAS officer secured 5,000
plus more votes than what Dr
Raut scored.
In Ramtek also Mallikarjun
Reddy of BJP had to face tough
fight with Ashish Jaiswal and
Subodh Mohite in 2014. Reddy
won that election. Subodh
Mohite, a two-time MP of
Ramtek secured third spot in
assembly polls.