THE Maharashtra Assembly election 2024 has become the most unpredictable one with all parties resorting to micro-planning to rule out mistakes committed in the previous elections. Some constituencies in the district, in last polls, registered slender victory margins and losing parties are working hard to avoid a repeat of another close call. In previous two polls, in six constituencies, the district recorded tough contest with many candidates registering thin victory margins. In 2019, in Nagpur South constituency, BJP’s Mohan Mate emerged victorious with a victory margin of mere 4,013 votes defeating his nearest rival Girish Pandav of Congress. Similarly, Bunty Shelke of Congress had to face defeat by a margin of 4,008 votes in Nagpur Central in the same election. Mate could garner 84,339 votes while Pandav secured 80,326 votes. Mate not only faced tough contest from Congress but also feud within BJP then. Several candidates considered allies of BJP also were in the fray. Sudhakar Kohale, who won the elections in 2014, was denied ticket in 2019. His resentment affected Mate’s vote share. Similarly, candidates like Pramod Manmode, Kishor Kumeria, Satish Holay also had filed nominations.

 

Overcoming these adverse circumstances, Mate did emerge winner. Post defeat, optimistic Pandav rebuilt his reputation in the constituency by establishing public-connect. This may come as a fresh challenge for Mate in upcomming Assembly polls as Pandav has an edge while there is no rebellion as Kohale has been compensated by BJP by giving him ticket from Nagpur West Assembly constituency. Similar was the outcome in Nagpur Central Assembly constituency in 2019 elections. Bunty Shelke had to face defeat at the hands of Vikas Kumbhare of BJP by a margin of 4,013 votes. Shelke was then a novice as far as Assembly polls are concerned. Kumbhare had secured 75,692 votes while Shelke could garner 71,684 votes. Shelke’s vote share surprised everyone. In 2019, None of The Above (NOTA) option came into play. It did make surprising impact on the poll outcome in Nagpur city. In Nagpur Central, 2,149 voters had opeted NOTA. One more constituency — Nagpur West — was missed by political pundits.

 

They were hopeful of Vikas Thakre taking advantage over Sudhakar Kohale. According to the citizens, upcoming Assembly polls will again witness close calls in some of the constituencies. It is assumed that Narendra Jichkar factor is likely to work. and if it works, Kohale will have an advantage. In 2019, Thakre won the polls by only 6,367 votes. He had polled 83,252 votes while his nearest rival Sudhakar Deshmukh secured 76,885 votes. Then there was antiincumbency. This elections, BJP is trying to reduce the margin to score a victory. In 2014, in Katol Anil Deshmukh of Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) had to face defeat at the hands of his elder paternal brother Ashish Deshmukh of BJP by only 5,557 votes. Ashish had secured 70,344 votes while Anil Deshmukh could garner 64,787 votes. Ashish Deshmukh rode on Modi wave in that election which was evident as in 2019 Anil Deshmukh defeated BJP’s Charan Singh Thakur by over 17,000 votes.

 

In Saoner which is the stronghold of Sunil Kedar had to face tough fight from Shiv Sena’s Vinod Jivtode in 2014 when Kedar could secure a victory margin of 9,000 votes. Kedar won that polls but not in his own style. In North Nagpur in 2014 Dr Milind Mane of BJP scored victory but the margin was not very impressive. Shockingly, the formidable candidate like Dr Nitin Raut had to remain satisfied at 3rd spot. Kishor Gajbhiye, a former IAS officer secured 5,000 plus more votes than what Dr Raut scored. In Ramtek also Mallikarjun Reddy of BJP had to face tough fight with Ashish Jaiswal and Subodh Mohite in 2014. Reddy won that election. Subodh Mohite, a two-time MP of Ramtek secured third spot in assembly polls.