WE, HIM, AND US

 

 

J J UST like the Big Fat Weddings in India generate global interest for its lavishness and massive spread, the Presidential elections in the United States are also seen as some sort of festival, with no direct connection. Political pundits choose to describe the Indian people’s interest in the US elections as a case of “begani shaadi me Abdullah deewana” and yet the result is latched upon by all and sundry as a possible gamechanger in the Indo-American relations. The landslide victory by Donald Trump in the Presidential election has also piqued the same interest as India welcomes return of the flamboyant President seen as a close buddy of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Indeed, the re-entry of Trump into White House comes with many positives for India as it consolidates its position of advantage in the changing global order. Since the first term of Trump, India has travelled a great distance in handling geopolitical nuances while protecting its own interests. The Indian stand on issues of border security with China and Pakistan are bound to find resonance in Trump’s foreign policy as the US is set to seek a hawkish approach on nailing the Dragon.

 

This spells good news for New Delhi in its efforts to bring down the Chinese aggression in eastern Ladakh. An open and full backing from a belligerent US President to keep India’s counterbalance intact in the region will be an extra cushion for efforts to ensure status quo ante at the friction points. It is a win-win situation for India which allows use of the US defence technology even as it builds its own arsenal to counter the Chinese. In focus of the Trump administration will also be the grudging acceptance of India’s business relations with Russia by the Western countries after the military conflict against Ukraine. The good terms of the POTUS with Russian President Vladimir Putin will come extremely handy to lend a proper perspective to India’s oil purchases and continued engagements with Moscow. New Delhi can hope to make the West see reason with the help of America. The list of positives being counted under the new Republican administration looks attractive for India and yet New Delhi cannot assume that it will be business as usual with the US. There are grudge subjects for which Trump has already rallied mass support during his re-election campaign.

 

The biggest threat India will have to counter is the tariffs to be imposed on imports. The US is India’s largest export destination and consistently ranks among its top two trade partners. Trump has already threatened a 60 per cent tariff on Chinese products and India, too, is on the hit-list. In the previous stint also Trump was vocal about India being a major charger of tariffs and promised a similar imposition on Indian products. He had also ended preferential trade status for India amid a bitter tariff war. The issue is delicate and costly too for India. Another soft issue that New Delhi will need to guard against is Trump’s dislike for issuance of H-1B visas of which Indian tech workers are major beneficiaries. In its bid to ‘Make America Great Again’ with the help of only local talent, the previous Trump administration had escalated the H-1B visa denial rate from 6 per cent in 2016 to 21 per cent in 2019. The anti-immigrant rhetoric during Trump’s election campaign is also set to be a reality and threatens to stoke new tensions in India-America relations. India has undoubtedly factored in the threats after handling the transactional nature of Trump’s dealings in the last term.

It must prepare to cede some things without any sentimental baggage to gain something substantial in other areas. However, the most critical aspect that India must insulate itself is the American penchant to disrupt status quo to serve its own interests. Washington has a history of deserting its allies right in the middle of an acute crisis. The latest display of the US recklessness is the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan in 2021 by leaving the country fend for itself against the raging Taliban militia. The American administration played all sides during the facade of peace talks between the then Afghanistan Government and Taliban with strategic use of Pakistan as a facilitator. Al the Indian interests were promptly abandoned as Pakistan’s stalled military aid was clandestinely restored by the US Government. It was a mini-version of a similar betrayal by Washington when it did not mind ignoring Pakistan’s sins when Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto was making a nuclear bomb. That was the time when Pakistan was made an integral ally of the US and Saudi Arabia during the Soviet-Afghan War of 1979. New Delhi had sent a series of intel to Washington about Pakistan’s preparation to go nuclear.

 

The US had shown initial concerns but quickly ignored the evidence as Pakistan was marked as a useful pawn to fight the Afghan Jihad. Then US President Jimmy Carter’s national security advisor Zbigniew Brzezinski declared supplying arms and money to Pakistan for the Afghan resistance. He also advised the US Government to review its policy towards Pakistan and release more guarantee and arms aid.In the later years, Carter’s successor Ronald Reagan toed the same line to hoodwink India. He brushed aside Pakistan’s nuclear weapons programme as “nothing of America’s business” and kept getting Congressional clearance for funds to be given to Pakistan. All Pakistan’s sins were forgiven and overlooked till the end of the war. When history repeats itself, it comes with silent signals. India will do well to remain ready with its own back-up plans as Trump 2.0 begins in the US.