THE stage is all set for polling on Wednesday for 12 seats of the State Legislative Assembly elections in Nagpur district. This time, the electoral battle is mainly between two alliances comprising three major partners each. Mahayuti comprising Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Shiv Sena (Eknath Shinde faction), and Nationalist Congress Party (NCP)-Ajit Pawar; and Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) comprising Congress, NCP (Sharad Pawar), and Shiv Sena (Uddhav Thackeray faction). While the Mahayuti is hoping to surpass the 2014 performance when it had won 11 out of total 12 Assembly seats in the district, MVA has campaigned to at least repeat the 2019 performance when Congress and NCP together had won five seats in the district. However, much has changed in Maharashtra since 2019 in the form of split in NCP and Shiv Sena.

 

As a result, this time, there are six parties in the fray testing their strength. Of these six, the battle is mainly between two major parties namely the ruling BJP and the opposition Congress. Of the total 12 Assembly constituencies in Nagpur district, six are in Nagpur city and six are in rural. Both, Mahayuti and MVA, have campaigned hard post-Diwali and are hoping to win as many seats as possible. Barring Katol, where NCP (SP) is a major contestant against BJP, and Ramtek where Congress rebel is a major contestant against Shiv Sena (Shinde) candidate, in the remaining 10 constituencies there is a straight fight between BJP and Congress. After the Lok Sabha elections earlier this year, which saw BJP retaining Nagpur seat but the BJP-Shiv Sena (Shinde) alliance losing Ramtek seat, Congress-led MVA was buoyed with the hopes of repeating good performance in Assembly elections too. But, MVA seat-sharing had a bearing on the fielding of candidates. Besides, as was seen during the campaign, much of the MVA narrative centred around the pitch made during the Lok Sabha elections.

 

On the other hand, Mahayuti reshaped its pitch by making corrections wherever necessary and launched various schemes including ‘Ladki Bahin Yojana’, ‘Bhavantar Yojana’ for agricultural produce, ‘Mukhyamantri Karya Prashikshan Yojana’ etc. Also, the Mahayuti took steps to counter the Congress attack regarding the Constitution. So, apart from the regular political planks to woo various communities, the outcome of the pitched electoral battles in the district is expected to rest on the response of the segments of voters to various schemes and narratives. In 2014, BJP had won 11 out of total 12 Assembly seats in Nagpur district, including all six in Nagpur city, and five in Nagpur rural.

 

The lone seat Congress had won was Saoner, where Sunil Kedar dominated the scene. However, the situation changed in 2019. BJP managed to win only six seats in the district including four in Nagpur city -- Nagpur South-West won by Devendra Fadnavis, Nagpur South won by Mohan Mate, Nagpur East won by Krishna Khopde, and Nagpur Central won by Vikas Kumbhare. BJP won two seats in Nagpur rural namely Hingna bagged by Sameer Meghe, and Kamptee bagged by Tekchand Savarkar. Interestingly, in Kamptee, BJP had fielded Savarkar in place of Chandrashekhar Bawankule. Gradually, Bawankule made a stellar comeback in the party organisation and is now its State President as well as candidate from his home-turf of Kamptee. In 2019, Congress had improved its tally to four by winning Nagpur West (Vikas Thakre) and Nagpur North (Dr Nitin Raut) in city, and Saoner (Sunil Kedar) and Umred (Raju Parwe) in rural. NCP had won one seat of Katol (Anil Deshmukh). Shiv Sena rebel Adv Ashish Jaiswal (who later joined Shinde faction of the party) won back Ramtek seat. Here is a brief overview of 12 Assembly constituencies in the district at the end of the high-octane campaign from both the sides: 

 

 

This has been the constituency dominated by BJP candidate Devendra Fadnavis, who is presently Deputy Chief Minister. BJP party organisation is very strong in this constituency, and a large part of the electorate takes pride in the fact that their MLA was earlier the Chief Minister and now the Deputy Chief Minister of Maharashtra. Hence, this constituency is among the most watched in Maharashtra. This time, again, Congress has fielded its senior leader Praful Gudadhe. The former Congress corporator had contested unsuccessfully against Fadnavis. In 2014, Fadnavis had polled 1,13,918 votes and Gudadhe had polled 54,976 votes. Fadnavis’ victory margin was 58,942 votes. In 2019, Congress replaced Gudadhe with Dr Ashish Deshmukh as a candidate from this constituency. Back then, Fadnavis had polled 1,09,237 votes and Dr Deshmukh had polled 59,893 votes. Fadnavis defeated Dr Deshmukh by a margin of 49,344 votes. This time, Congress has fielded Gudadhe again. BJP is banking upon the leader appeal of Devendra Fadnavis, and also upon the developmental works he has ushered in in his constituency. Besides, he is credited with launching various welfare schemes. The constituency has seen registration of over 30,000 new voters, of which BJP and Congress both hope to win some votes. Many observers feel that Fadnavis may sail smoothly because of his pan-community appeal, stature as a tall leader of Maharashtra, and a man of action when it comes to development.

 

 

Congress had wrested this seat from BJP in 2019. In 2014, BJP’s Sudhakar Deshmukh defeated Vikas Thakre of Congress. In 2019, Thakre avenged his defeat by wresting this seat from Deshmukh. This time, Thakre is fighting to retain the seat while BJP has fielded Sudhakar Kohale, former MLA and District President of the party. The fight is perceived to be triangular instead of straight. But, many believe that the third contestant -- Narendra Jichkar, a Congress rebel -- may not be strong enough to win. Political observers believe that Jichkar’s candidature as an Independent, may, at best, dent the prospects of Vikas Thakre’s victory. While the plank of Thakre’s campaign is that the BJP has given a candidate residing in another constituency, Kohale’s campaign has focused on connecting with the party organisation as well as BJP’s traditional voters. While Jichkar and Thakre both bank upon traditional Congress voters, BJP has put in its organisational weight behind Kohale. Devendra Fadnavis, Deputy Chief Minister, had held a meeting of BJP workers after which they have been reaching out to voters, brightening Kohale’s position in the contest. Both the main candidates -- Thakre and Kohale -- are locked in a tough contest, and political observers are keenly watching the performance of the third candidate -- Jichkar.

 

 

For past few terms, this constituency has patronised BJP. Vikas Kumbhare of BJP has represented this constituency successively. This time, BJP has replaced veteran Kumbhare with a younger Pravin Datke, former Mayor. He is locked in a contest with young Congress gun Bunty Shelke, who had contested unsuccessfully in 2019 against Kumbhare. The constituency is mainly dominated by the Halba community, whose votes are decisive. Kumbhare belongs to this community. Against this backdrop, many viewed BJP’s decision to give a non-Halba candidate as a risky one. However, BJP is banking upon the opportunities it gave previously to the community. It had given Vikas Kumbhare consecutive opportunities as MLA, made Deepraj Pardikar as Deputy Mayor, made Pravin Bhisikar as Chairman of Standing Committee, and Rajendra Sonkusare as Chairman of a committee of Nagpur Municipal Corporation. Now, it is seeking Halba community’s cooperation in getting party candidate Pravin Datke elected as MLA from this constituency. Bunty Shelke, who is popular as a Youth Congress leader, had secured good number of votes against Kumbhare in 2019. However, later, many viewed his agitations as antics. Though Congress party has thrown its weight behind Shelke, Punekar contesting as an Independent may dent his prospects.

 

 

A tough contest is on cards in this constituency. BJP candidate Mohan Mate hopes to retain the seat while Congress has fielded Girish Pandav with a hope to wrest this seat from BJP. BJP has won this seat in the past two Assembly elections. In 2014, Sudhakar Kohale had won the seat for BJP. In 2019, BJP changed its candidate and Mohan Mate retained the seat for the party. Girish Pandav, who was fielded by Congress in 2019, had given a good fight back then. Hence, many view the ‘Mate vs Pandav’ electoral battle as a keen contest this time too. Over the past five years, many changes have taken place. However, the people in the electorate are keeping in mind the help given by different political parties and their leaders during the tough times of COVID-19 pandemic. Besides, political observers believe that the women voters’ sympathy will play a major role in deciding victory in the constituency this time. Though many feel that Mohan Mate may retain the seat for the BJP, many view the contest as a tough one to predict.

 

 

This constituency has become predictable of sorts in the past few Assembly elections. Since the BJP’s Krishna Khopde defeated Congress stalwart Dr Satish Chaturvedi, this constituency has remained a fortress of Khopde. However, Khopde is predicted to sail smoothly. Pethe, in the previous contest from this constituency on the ticket of NCP (undivided then) in 2014, had polled only 8,061 votes. Congress had fielded Adv Abhijeet Wanjari then, and he had polled 50,522 votes. Shiv Sena candidate had polled 7,481 votes. All their votes put together were still at least 33,000 votes lesser than the total votes polled by Khopde alone. In 2019, Congress fielded Purushottam Hazare who had polled 79,975 votes and had lost to Khopde who had polled 1,03,992 votes. However, Pethe is facing a challenge from within MVA as Purushottam Hazare is contesting as an Independent. Also, NCP rebel Abha Pande is in fray as Independent, which may cost Pethe dearly.

 

 

Congress has fielded its veteran leader Dr Nitin Raut again from this constituency. He is locked in an electoral contest with Dr Milind Mane of BJP. Some predict Dr Raut to sail smoothly, and some predict the return of Dr Mane. In 2014, Dr Mane had defeated Dr Raut by a margin of over 18,000 votes. That time, Kishore Gajbhiye of Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) had polled a whopping 55,187 votes and had finished second in the contest. Dr Raut was relegated to third position, in fact. However, in 2019, Dr Raut made a strong comeback from this constituency. He defeated Dr Mane by a margin of over 20,000 votes. Kishore Gajbhiye was not in the fray then from this constituency, and BSP candidate Suresh Sakhare polled 23,333 votes. This time, once again, Dr Raut and Dr Mane are locked in a contest. BSP has fielded Manoj Sangole, who also is popular in the constituency. As far as the campaign is concerned, all three have engaged in visibility exercise. Political observers predict that if Sangole could garner as many votes as secured by Gajbhiye in 2014, the outcome may favour Dr Mane of BJP. 

 

The chances of BJP candidate Sameer Meghe retaining the seat are looking bright, given the past results. In 2014, Meghe had defeated NCP veteran Rameshchandra Bang by a margin of over 23,000 votes. That time, Congress had contested independently. Congress candidate Kunda Raut, however, polled 20,573 votes. But, even if the votes polled by Bang and Raut then are put together, Meghe still had over 2,500 votes more. In 2019, NCP replaced Bang with former BJP MLA Vijay Ghodmare. Still, Meghe retained the seat with a margin of more than 46,000 votes. This time, NCP (SP) has reposed faith in veteran Bang. However, Meghe’s youth appeal and a long list of works done are on his side.

 

 

This constituency made headlines due to the alleged attack on former Home Minister and NCP (SP) veteran Anil Deshmukh on the day when the election campaign closed. While the BJP-Mahayuti viewed it as a desperate attempt to gain sympathy ahead of polls, NCP(SP) and MVA constituents alleged that it was the work of the opponents. Congress’ Yajnavalkya Shrikant Jichkar has resorted to rebellion and is contesting as an Independent. Anil Deshmukh’s name was announced as NCP (SP) candidate, but later the party gave ticket to his son Salil, who has been a Zilla Parishad member. As far as past elections are concerned, Anil Deshmukh has turned the seat into his home-turf. However, in 2014, his nephew, BJP candidate Dr Ashish Deshmukh defeated Deshmukh by a margin of around 5,000 votes.

 

This constituency has been a stronghold of senior Congress leader Sunil Kedar, who has been dominating the political scenario in the entire Nagpur rural as was seen during the Lok Sabha elections when he ensured victory of his supporter and a novice Shyamkumar Barve. In 2019, Kedar reconsolidated his position by defeating his rival BJP candidate Dr Rajiv Potdar by a margin of over 26,000 votes. However, Kedar has been facing a tough time owing to his conviction in the NDCCB scam case and subsequent disqualification. He has now fielded his wife Anuja Kedar from his home-turf of Saoner. Anuja Kedar is facing a challenge from BJP candidate Dr Ashish Deshmukh, who has returned to BJP fold after quitting Congress which he had joined after leaving BJP. It is a straight fight. BJP-Mahayuti is trying to avenge the Lok Sabha defeat, and Sunil Kedar has made this contest a prestige issue.

 

 

Contest in this constituency reserved for Scheduled Caste is unpredictable this time. The constituency where Hindu Dalit votes are more decisive than others is witnessing a fight with an interesting 3rd dimension. Former MLA and BJP candidate Sudhir Parwe is locked in an electoral battle with Congress candidate Sanjay Meshram. But, the interesting third dimension is said to be Pramod Gharde, an Independent candidate. Sudhir Parwe was BJP MLA from Umred in 2014. Things changed in 2019 as Raju Parwe contested on Congress ticket and defeated BJP’s Sudhir Parwe by a margin of over 18,000 votes. BSP’s Sandeep Meshram had polled 18,567 votes then. Earlier this year, ahead of Lok Sabha elections. Raju Parwe quit Congress and joined Shiv Sena (Shinde) and fought from Ramtek. Later on, he expected Shiv Sena (Shinde) to field him from Umred in Assembly elections. But, BJP managed to pacify Raju Parwe, who quit SS (Shinde) and joined BJP, clearing the path for BJP’s Sudhir Parwe. 

 

 

This constituency is considered a BJP stronghold in general and a home-turf of Chandrashekhar Bawankule, State President of BJP and former minister. Political observers predict a smooth sailing for Bawankule, who is locked in a contest against Congress candidate Suresh Bhoyar once again. In 2014, in the contest between BJP’s Bawankule and Congress’ Rajendra Mulak, Bawankule had won with a margin of over 40,000 votes. In 2019, however, BJP replaced Bawankule with comparatively lesser-known Tekchand Savarkar. Congress had fielded Suresh Bhoyar. In the fight between both the faces well known in Zilla Parishad circles – Savarkar and Bhoyar – Savarkar emerged victorious on the strength of BJP’s organisational depth and spread. Savarkar defeated Bhoyar by a margin of over 11,000 votes. This decline in BJP’s winning margin was attributed to denial of ticket to Bawankule. 

 

 

This is among the most keenly-watched contests this time. Adv Ashish Jaiswal of Shiv Sena (Shinde) is trying to retain this seat. His rival and official candidate of Shiv Sena (Thackeray)-MVA Vishal Barbate is already on a shaky ground, because of rebellion by Rajendra Mulak of Congress, which is a constituent of MVA. In 2014, when all the four major parties – BJP, Shiv Sena, NCP, and Congress – had contested independently, BJP’s D Mallikarjun Reddy had defeated long-time MLA Adv Jaiswal. In 2019, Adv Jaiswal contested as an Independent and wrested back this seat from BJP. This time however, he is facing a strong contest from Congress rebel and Independent candidate Rajendra Mulak. But, Mulak is going strong and he is gaining support from senior Congress leader Sunil Kedar, as was seen ahead of the Assembly election campaign.