Predictive info needed for C’garh’s Climate Action

 

 

Chhattisgarh has prepared a detailed State Action Plan for Climate Change (SAPCC). An expert workshop was held recently for implementation of this SAPCC. The implementation plan will lead to a weather-ready, climate-resilient Chhattisgarh but only with hyper local risk maps, early warnings and decadal predictions. None of the key climate variables show any worrisome trends yet but Chhattisgarh’s risks can arise from far and wide such as the neighboring states and oceans. Predictive information and budget allocations are critical for effective and efficient SPACC implementation. India’s massive investments in weather and climate predictions are yielding reliable early warnings. Chhattisgarh needs experts to manage climate hazards and navigate policies and strategies for SPACC implementation. Early warnings serve a Ready-Set-Go framework. The Ready step uses seasonal forecasts to prepare key sectors such as agriculture, water, energy, health, transportation, buildings and infrastructure for potential extremes. The Set step is based on extended range forecasts for 2 to 4 weeks to prepare personnel and equipment for expected climate hazards. The go step jumps into action to manage disasters predicted for the coming days. Risk is defined as a multiplier of hazard, vulnerability, and exposure.

 

We need Km-scale risk maps for all key sectors. These indices are extremely data-intensive which means we need to urgently identify the data gaps and build sustained data networks for long-term monitoring of weather, climate and relevant socioeconomics and ecosystems. Forecasts and early warnings issued by IMD are at 10 Km scales but climate impacts happen at scales of neighborhoods, farms and power grids. Hyper local scale downscaling of IMD forecasts can be accomplished using Artificial Intelligence methods which also need local data. Forecasts of heat waves, floods, and advisories for irrigation and health are being generated with these approaches already. Going beyond managing crises to build resilience and prepare for life-saving and livelihood-protecting adaptations require guidance on what maybe on the horizon in the coming years to a decade.

The challenge will again be to downscale those multi-ye

ar predictions to requisite scales within Chhattisgarh and its neighboring states. Chhattisgarh needs to keep its eye on the climate issues of the neighbouring states and plan for a monitoring network around its border to track weather, climate and the entire natural-human system across and within its boundaries. A regional coalition of states may serve the interests of all states in monitoring emissions, weather and climate extremes. Chhattisgarh is a disproportionately high emitter of greenhouse gases considering its relatively small population. Its role in India’s net zero plans will require it to reduce its per capita emissions which can easily be made an integral part of the SAPCC. Systematic reductions in risks to stay on track for resilient and sustainable development are a key component of SAPCC implementation. Vision India@2047 imagines India to be weather-ready and climate-resilient by 2047. Chhattisgarh can be the leader in the regional as well as the national effort to stay on a pathway to sustainable development that is resilient and on track for net zero. (The writer is Professor Climate Studies at IIT, Mumbai)