By Girish Linganna 

 

 

RECENTLY, tensions have surged between Iran and Israel. On Twitter, Iran’s top leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, stated that Israel’s reported attack on a site within an Iranian embassy area in Damascus— capital of Syria and one of the world’s oldest continuously inhabited cities—was tantamount to aggression against Iran. He emphasized that Israel deserved to face consequences for its actions. On April 1, 2024, an Israeli airstrike hit a building next to the Iranian embassy in Damascus, Syria, resulting in the death of Zahedi and between five to seven others. The building targeted was a consulate annex. The Iranian ambassador to Syria, Hossein Akbari, confirmed the number of casualties. A few hours after Iran’s declaration, Israel’s Foreign Minister, Israel Katz, took to Twitter in Persian with a clear message: If Iran attacks Israel from its own territory, Israel will strike back on Iranian soil. Defence Minister Yoav Gallant also issued a similar warning later in the day, but did not specifically mention Iran in his remarks. Over the past week, Israel has sent clear signals to Iran that it will strike back if attacked. These warnings have also been shared with the United States. The recent threats between Israel and Iran are similar to the tough talk that happened after the killing of Iranian nuclear scientist, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, in December 2020.

 

But this time, all of Iran’s main leaders are making threats together. When Iran’s supreme leader issues a threat, it is like giving an order to take action. Fakhrizadeh, a prominent Iranian nuclear scientist, was assassinated in November 2020 near Tehran. His vehicle was ambushed by armed attackers, which led to a firefight. He died from gunshot wounds sustained in the attack. While Iran has publicly accused Israel of orchestrating the killing, Israel has neither confirmed, nor denied involvement, following its policy of ambiguity on such matters. International investigations or arrests have not been reported in the case. Improved Israel-US Coop: A senior security official spoke to Zman Yisrael, the Hebrew-language partner site of The Times of Israel, explaining that, following the death of Mohammad Reza Zahedi, a high-ranking commander in Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, in Damascus last week, the partnership between the US military and the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) has significantly improved. This enhanced cooperation includes setting up a new system to quickly alert Israel about incoming missile threats. The US has radar systems in the Persian Gulf that monitor the skies over and around Iran. While not commonly discussed in Israel, the US, Israel and other regional partners have established a network of radar systems. This network provides extensive surveillance coverage of Iran.

 

After a week of being cautious with their words about Iran, the US gave Israel a reassuring message on Wednesday. President Joe Biden emphasised that America’s support for Israel’s security, especially against threats from Iran and its allies, was “ironclad”—something that is very strong, unbreakable, or guaranteed, an unwavering commitment. Both Republican and Democratic Administrations in the US have consistently pledged to maintain Israel’s superior military capabilities relative to its regional rivals. Additionally, the US has made substantial investments in supporting Israel’s development of missile defence systems. The Iron Dome system is a notable achievement in this area. It is a mobile defence system designed to intercept short-range rockets and has successfully intercepted over 2,000 rockets from the Gaza Strip since its deployment 10 years ago. Recently, the US Army acquired two Iron Dome units following Congressional directives, aiming to enhance defences against cruise missiles. Biden’s remarks are clearly directed at Iran, possibly influenced by alarming intelligence data from Israel shared with the US. It is clear that the Biden Administration is deeply worried about the potential for conflict between Israel and Iran, although it is generally believed that neither Iran nor Israel wants a large-scale military fight. Israel is currently engaged in conflict in the Gaza Strip and managing tensions with Hezbollah on its northern border.

 

Meanwhile, Iran considers war as a last option, only to be used if the leadership is threatened, or to defend its nuclear programme. Instead, Iran typically relies on a group of allied forces to carry out its plans. Earlier this year, Iran deviated from its normal cautious behaviour and faced the consequences. Following an ISIS attack at Qassem Soleimani’s grave, Iran launched an attack on Baluchistan in Pakistan. Pakistan responded forcefully and immediately, shooting back and sending a strong warning to Iran. Faced with Pakistan’s nuclear capabilities, Iran quickly backed down. The Nuclear Option: Another possible response from Iran could be to increase its enrichment efforts and quickly move towards developing nuclear weapons. Recently, at two different events, top officials in Iran urged Khamenei to pursue nuclear weapons. Khamenei had previously issued a fatwa, an Islamic legal decree, stating that building nuclear weapons was against Islam. Despite this, during the Ramadan prayers last Friday, a leading imam asked Khamenei to revoke this fatwa and direct Iran’s nuclear agency to start making a bomb. This statement caught the attention of the Western world as it seemed like a major religious leader was openly challenging the supreme leader.

 

This has led to speculation that Khamenei might be setting the stage for such a decision by encouraging pressure from religious authorities. Later in the week, suspicions grew when Mahmoud-Reza Aghamir, head of Shahid Behesti University in Tehran and a nuclear physics professor, mentioned on Iranian TV that the supreme leader could, indeed, withdraw his fatwa, the Times of Israel reported. Aghamir, who is closely linked to the regime, said that, with the current level of their nuclear programme, making a bomb would be easier than continuing to store large amounts of highly enriched uranium. Currently, Iran has 150 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60 per cent, which is enough to make three bombs. Israel is keeping a close eye on this potential situation. If it develops, the US might have to step in with a strong military response to make its stance clear to Iran. The risk is that Khamenei may secretly issue an order to build a bomb and then the only signs that Iran is working on it would come from intelligence reports. Israel had earlier claimed it would know if Iran was close to completing a nuclear warhead. However, following the events of October 7, Israel is re-evaluating all its intelligence assumptions, including those about Iran.