“THE victorious strategist only seeks battle after the victory has been won, whereas, he who is destined to defeat, first fights and afterwards looks for victory.” Sun Tzu in The Art of War The Chinese defence forces recently conducted a massive military exercise called Joint Sword-2024A around Taiwan. The Chinese army, navy, air force and the missile force carried out very aggressive drills and posturing around Taiwan and literally sounded war bugle to seize this island nation, which officially calls itself Republic of China (ROC). China -Taiwan face-off is another flashpoint in a volatile and uncertain world and we must understand the background of the crisis. Taiwan is a small island nation measuring 36,193 sq km and is located to the south east of mainland China. The capital city of Taipei is located in the north. In fact, Sri Lanka has almost the double of the landmass of Taiwan. It is connected by the sea route of Taiwan Strait which is part of the South China Sea and is roughly 130-180 km wide from the mainland China. The Taiwan Strait is a key shipping route and accounts for 88% of the world’s largest ships in terms of tonnage passing through it. Taiwan was under the control of Japan till its surrender in 1945 in Second World War. Thereafter, it came under the control of the communist China led by Mao Zedong which led to conflict with the local Taiwanese leadership.

 

China gained formal independence on 1 October 1949, became People’s Republic of China (PRC) and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) took over power which remains the sole power centre of China till date. Around this time in 1949, General Chiang Kai Shek separated from China and established an independent nation called Taiwan. China never recognized the independent status of Taiwan and believes it to be part of the unified China under One China policy. Since then, both the nations have been in some sort of conflict. Though USA wants the issues between China and Taiwan resolved through dialogue and mutual acceptance, yet the USA is committed to protect Taiwan in self defence. With just 1.70 lakh defence personnel, Taiwan is no match for 2 million strong PLA. But Taiwan has invested heavily into technology and modern military equipment. It relies on asymmetric warfare to deal with China in typical ‘David versus Goliath’ syndrome. Though only 12 countries recognize Taiwan with formal diplomatic relations, Taiwan is a shining democracy where the new President William Lai was sworn on 20 May 24 after a successful election. His first statement after taking over was that Taiwan would never back down from the intimidation of China. China immediately responded with the massive military exercise.

 

Taiwan has made reconciliatory statements after the current face-off and a delegation of US lawmakers visited Taiwan on 27 May24 and called on President Lai. This show of solidarity with Taiwan will not be liked by China and China is likely to heighten pressure around the Taiwan Strait hereafter. As far as China is concerned, the reunification of Taiwan is first priority of the CCP and the Chinese armed forces. In fact, the sole purpose of the PLA’s Eastern Theatre is annexation of Taiwan. Chinese President Xi Jinping has made it a prestige issue and would like One China policy to fructify by 2027 under him. So, what is preventing China from physically invading Taiwan? In my opinion, there are two key factors. First is lack of combat experience with the Chinese military. The 2 million strong PLA has no actual experience of war after China- Vietnam war of 1979. The last war was a debacle for them and the PLA suffered massive casualties in the war. Of course, PLA is now a modern military but the current PLA leadership knows that there is no substitute for the actual war experience. In fact, most of the present military leadership has no major combat experience.

 

The second factor playing in the Chinese minds must be ongoing Russia – Ukraine war where Ukraine has held off a powerful Russian military might with the public support. The Taiwanese people are likely to unite a give a tough fight to the Chinese. China always believes in 200% success in case of war and if it fails to capture Taiwan in a short and swift war, the CCP itself may lose control over the nation. President Xi Jinping may lose power and therefore the cautionary approach on their part. In fact, they believe that Taiwan may be subjugated with psychological and military intimation. So far, they have not succeeded. Though India and Taiwan lack formal diplomatic relations, the ties between New Delhi and Taipei have steadily grown in the last decade. The economic ties are the cornerstone of the bilateral relations and some see the growing relations as a counterbalance to China in the region. India has to learn a lot from the current face-off. Firstly, India has asserted in the South China Sea recently for the first time. It has to remain firm in its resolve. Secondly, Chinese presence in Sri Lanka and Maldives is a cause of concern for India.

 

Therefore, India has to exert some sort of pressure on China, directly or indirectly. Thirdly, India may have to secure Andaman & Nicobar Islands from the Chinese threat in a similar way. The latest intelligence inputs indicate that China is preparing an armada of ferries and civilian ships to invade Taiwan. The capture of Taiwan is only possible through amphibious operations and landing troops on the coast under fire is one of the most difficult military operations. It is anticipated that the Chinese may use large number of vessels and civilian ships to overwhelm Taiwanese coastline with tanks and troops. A challenging task indeed and the latest face-off may be a precursor of many more maneuvers in the future. China is emboldened with a weakening US might and lack of strong leadership. With so many conflict zones around the world, China may surprise everyone as far as its aggression to capture Taiwan based on Sun Tzu dictum is concerned. Indian policy makers and military analysts also have to keep a close watch.n