By K Raveendran 

 

 

The choice of Russia as the destination of the first official visit in his third term heading a coalition government is laden with symbolism and strategic implications, encompassing political messaging to coalition partners and a reinforcement of economic ties between India and Russia. Historically, India and Russia share a robust diplomatic relationship that dates back to the Cold War era. Despite geopolitical shifts and realignments in global politics, the bond between the two countries has endured, rooted in shared strategic interests and longstanding defence cooperation. For Prime Minister Modi, initiating his third term with a visit to Moscow underscores the enduring nature of this partnership and signals continuity and stability in India’s foreign policy approach. The timing of the visit is also important. While the annual India-Russia meeting provides the immediate backdrop, the visit comes amidst heightened global tensions, particularly between Russia and Western powers, over issues ranging from Ukraine to cybersecurity concerns. By choosing Russia for his inaugural foreign visit, Modi is subtly asserting India’s stance on maintaining strategic autonomy and its right to engage with multiple global powers on its own terms.

 

This move is also likely aimed at reassuring coalition partners and the international community of India’s commitment to a balanced foreign policy that prioritizes national interests while navigating complex geopolitical dynamics. Economically, India-Russia relations have traditionally been dominated by defence trade and cooperation. Russia remains one of India’s largest defence suppliers, accounting for a significant portion of its defence equipment imports. However, in recent years, both countries have expressed a desire to diversify their economic engagement beyond defence. Energy, pharmaceuticals, infrastructure, and technology are emerging as new areas of collaboration, reflective of evolving global economic trends and the strategic interests of both nations. One of the most notable aspects of the India-Russia relationship after the outbreak of the war in Ukraine was India’s unapologetic purchase of discounted Russian crude oil despite the questions it raised for the India’s relationship with the US.

 

The leap in crude oil trade helped the total trade between India and Russia reach nearly $50 billion from 2022-2023, crossing the two countries’ previous aspiration of reaching $30 billion by 2025. India also exports a growing amount of food and pharmaceutical items to Russia, which are outside the ambit of Western sanctions. India has also shown no shyness in emphasizing that it is India’s refinement of Russian crude oil and the subsequent sale of it to other markets, including Europe, that has created some stability in the global oil market. From a geopolitical perspective, India’s engagement with Russia complements its broader strategy of multi-alignment. While India maintains robust ties with Western powers, including the United States and European Union countries, its relationship with Russia provides a crucial balancing factor in the global arena. Moscow’s role in regional stability, particularly in Eurasia and Central Asia, aligns with India’s interests in countering terrorism, ensuring energy security, and promoting connectivity through initiatives like the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC). Moreover, Russia’s support for India’s permanent membership in an expanded United Nations Security Council (UNSC) and other international fora remains a cornerstone of bilateral diplomatic cooperation.

 

Prime Minister Modi’s visit is expected to reaffirm India’s commitment to strengthening these aspects of the relationship while exploring new avenues for collaboration in emerging fields such as artificial intelligence, cybersecurity, and space technology. Critics of India’s close ties with Russia argue that Moscow’s strained relations with the West could potentially isolate India diplomatically or limit its strategic options in the long term. However, the resilience and strategic depth of the Indo-Russian partnership overrides these apprehensions, emphasizing its ability to withstand global geopolitical shifts and contribute positively to regional and global stability. The visit carries a certain domestic message, giving comfort to some of the coalition partners, apart from making a statement to the opposition parties, which have been weary of Modi’s overtures to leaders like Donald Trump and Israeli prime minister Benyamin Netanyahu.

 

Being pure regional players, coalition partners such as Chandrababu Naidu’s TDP have very little to worry about alignment with this global power or that, but Bihar strongman Nitish Kumar would be happy to see India-Russia ties flourish, given his socialist protestations. Yet, there is no doubt that Modi’s Russia visit sends nuanced messages to various domestic constituencies while moving ahead with India’s foreign policy priorities and commitment to expanding economic cooperation beyond traditional defence ties. As both countries navigate a complex global landscape, the visit is poised to set the stage for deeper engagement across multiple sectors, fostering mutual prosperity and advancing shared interests on the international stage. (IPA)