A7-member US Congressional delegation, led by House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Michael McCaul, which also included Nancy Pelosi, former US House of Representatives Speaker visited Dharamshala (HP) and New Delhi from June 16 to 20, 2024. The visit of the delegation to Dharamshala, the home of His Holiness Dalai Lama on June 18-19 assumes significance from the foreign policy perspective on Tibet. The powerful delegation from the US called on HH Dalai Lama on June 19. The visit comes after the US Congress recently passed the Resolve Tibet Act. It would become a law once the US President Joe Biden formally signs and approves it. The visit was a clear message for China after China strongly objected to the visit of the US delegation by urging the US to “fully recognise the anti-China and separatist nature of Dalai clique and refrain from any contact with it.” We need to understand the background of this important issue which also has serious implications on Indo-China relations. Tibet is often called the “roof of the world” and it is a high-altitude plateau and mountain region with an average height of 14,000 feet.

 

Located to the south-west of China, this massive area of 25,00,000 square km is bordered by Nepal, India and Bhutan to its south. Before 1950, it was a remote area and it was an autonomous region. China gained Independence on October 1, 1949 and immediately staked its claim over Tibet citing ancient linkage with the region. China forcefully annexed Tibet in 1951 and since then it has been under the administration of People’s Republic of China (PRC). After the Tibetan uprising in 1959, the spiritual leader of Tibetans had to fled to India and HH Dalai Lama established a Tibetan government in exile in Mussoorie on April 29, 1959 and thereafter it shifted to Dharamshala in 1960. Though India recognised Tibet to be part of China in 1954 itself, the existence of Government in exile in India has not been taken kindly by it. The One China Principle of China maintains that PRC and the ruling Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has sole legitimacy over Tibet, Hongkong and Taiwan. On the other hand, One China Policy of US accepts Tibet and Hongkong to be under the PRC and the US officially has no diplomatic relations with Taiwan. But the US has supported the call for genuine autonomy for the Tibetans from the autocratic China. In pursuance of this stated policy, the US Congress passed the Resolve Tibet Act in June 2024 to enhance US support for Tibet and promote dialogue between China and Dalai Lama.

 

As expected, China has reacted very strongly and has asked the US to shelve the bill. US and China share a tumultuous relationship when it comes to democratic and just rights of the Tibetans. But the timing of the act is interesting. Modi 3.0 Government has assumed power on June 9, 2024. The elections for the US presidency are due in November this year and championing the cause of democracy in Tibet does benefit President Biden in his reelection bid. Another way of looking it may be US reshape the One China Policy and leverage more from China in the next term. The US can afford to annoy China below the threshold of diplomatic tolerance at least till the formation of the new Government. The US delegation also met Prime Minister Modi and officially the meet was to congratulate Mr. Modi on winning the third term in office as also further strengthening Indo-US relations. India also reaffirmed its support to HH Dalai Lama in his position as the spiritual leader of the Tibetans to conduct “his religious and spiritual activities.” Though this has been the public position of India, the timing of the visit of the US delegation would have China thinking. Compared to the US, these developments pose much serious Tibetan dilemma to Indian foreign policy mandarins. With the situation in and opposite Eastern Ladakh not having changed much after the Galwan crisis of June 2020 in the last four years, any further aggravation of the situation elsewhere is something we can ill afford as of now.

 

Therefore, our response has to be carefully calibrated in tune with the ground realities. Given the advanced age of HH Dalai Lama (89 years) and his failing health, the key issue would be his 15th successor to the Tibetan heritage. China certainly would like to have a successor attuned to their thought process. The US has said that it would not accept a Beijing-appointed Dalai Lama. India would have to tread carefully here. One thing is sure. China is going to react very strongly if they fail to appoint the successor and may be President Xi Jinping would try to prove Nancy Pelosi wrong. The critical decision from the foreign policy perspective would be India’s stance on continuing with the Tibetan government in exile functioning from India. While we may continue to support the just rights of the around 70,000 Tibetans living in India, the US should be offering the Tibetans a government in exile on their soil. That would give some seriousness to the much touted Reshape Tibet Bill/Act. Based on how the 15th Dalai Lama is enshrined, India’s foreign policy must have the options ready. One obvious option is to settle border dispute with China and their claim over Arunachal Pradesh. Militarily, while we improve our strategic relations with the USA, in a conflict with China in the immediate or mid- term, the Americans won’t be of much help. With a majorly Russian origin military hardware with Indian Armed Forces, it would take decades and a huge dollar bill to have compatible arsenal. The only option is to quickly become ‘Aatmnirbhar’ and our defence industry has to match up to this challenge. The defence infrastructure projects have also to be pushed further. Modi 3.0 Government may have to confront the Tibetan dilemma in its third term. While we should continue to support the Tibetan cause as inherited, the future beckons a more pragmatic response, not necessarily bound with the existing moral dilemma.