M-E: Escalating Tensions

 

 

 

THE appointment of Yahya Sinwar as the supreme leader of Hamas, to succeed Ismail Haniyeh, the previous supreme leader of Hamas who was killed on July 31, 2024 in Tehran did not receive the attention it deserved. Yahya Sinwar was the military commander and politbureau of Hamas in Gaza and he is considered the mastermind behind the October 7, 2023 attack in Israel that ignited the current conflict in the Middle East. The entire West Asia and the Middle East has been on the edge post the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh on July 31, 2024. Iran and the militant organisation Hamas blamed Israel for this shocking assassination of Ismail Haniyeh while he was in Iran.

 

The Israeli military also confirmed on August 1, 2024 that the head of Hamas’ military wing, Mohammed Deif was killed in an air strike on Gaza on July 13, 2024. Many theories are emerging how Haniyeh was killed but it can be safely assumed that such an attack would not happen without the tacit support of the US. Iranian supreme leader Khamenei has already vowed revenge on Israel and said that “Israel prepared a harsh punishment for itself.” Even if the assassination is a calculated move by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the chances of this region becoming engulfed in more direct conflict with Israel are imminent. It all started with Oct 7 2023 Hamas’ and other Palestinian militants deadly attack from the Gaza Strip into Southern Israel in which 1200 Israelis were killed and 250 were abducted. This dastardly attack is first major attack on Israel territory since the 1948 Arab- Israeli war. Israel Defence Forces (IDF) immediately declared a state of war and responded with an air strike on Gaza strip and followed it with ground attack. More than 100 hostages are still with Hamas and one of the aims of Israel to secure their release now remains doubtful. As per one report, almost 40,000 Palestinians have been killed in the Israel military campaign so far and half of Gaza has been razed to ground.

 

The conflict is already 10-month-old and more Iran backed extremist groups, Hezbollah in Lebanon and Houthis from Yemen have targeted Israel with rockets and missiles and IDF has responded aggressively against them. With the killing of Haniyeh, the conflagration of this conflict in West Asia is a clear possibility. The fast-paced chain of events of the last 10 days has subdued the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, at least for the time being. West Asia is a subregion of Asia that is bordered by Europe to the West, Central Asia to the North and South Asia to the East. About 20 countries fall into the category of West Asia and Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey, Yemen, Syria, UAE are some of the prominent countries. More than half of the world’s oil reserves and about 40% of the world’s natural gas is found in the region and thus the clout of these nations matters. The Middle East is more of a political term whereas the West Asia is a geographical term with more clarity. One must understand Israel as a nation to fully comprehend the dynamics of the ongoing conflict. Israel the home of the Jews, stands at the cross roads of Europe, Asia and Africa. It is bordered by Lebanon and Syria to the North, West Bank and Jordan to the East, Egypt and Gaza Strip to the South and Mediterranean Sea to its West. It is also a fact that survival of the current Israel PM depends fully on the success in the war against all adversaries put together. It is difficult to define notion of victory for Israel but as the past events have proved, the challenge for Israel to keep the IDF motivated to fight are immense.

 

USA and Israel share a special relationship right from the time when USA was the first country to recognise Israel as a nation in 1948. Israel gained the confidence of the US after 1967 Arab Israeli war in which Israel defeated Jordan, Syria and Egypt in just six days war. This happened at the height of US-USSR cold war era and the USA was convinced that it had found a bulwark in Israel, against the Soviet influence in the West Asia. The Jews are a powerful business community in the US and the Americans seem to share affinity towards Israelis. Israel is also an undeclared nuclear power with the tacit support of the US. No wonder that President Biden immediately reaffirmed its commitment to Israel’s security against retaliation by Iran and the proxies. Now the question is how strong is the retaliation from Iran. We must remember that Iran and Saudi Arabia are two major military powers jostling to dominate the affairs in the region.

 

So, Iran may have to retaliate against Israel soon to retain its primacy in the region. In my opinion, it would be calibrated response below the threshold of direct intervention by the US. The US has already started boosting its military presence in the Middle East. The Pentagon has issued orders for moving one additional Fighter Jet Squadron and maintaining a fully loaded aircraft carrier in the region. In addition, more land and sea based ballistic missiles are being deployed to provide the necessary air defence shield against rocket/missile/UAV attack against Israel. The last time Iran carried out symbolic attack on Israel was on April 13, 2024 and the US and Israel defence shield neutralised most of them, with minimal damage to Israel. India’s foreign policy mandarins must be working overtime to study the situation unfolding in the Middle East.

 

There are close to 9 million Indians diaspora in the West Asia. India has already issued travel advisory to its people staying in Israel and the region. India has the additional dilemma because it shares close economic and strategic relationship with Israel. India also has major stake in the region’s oil and natural gas. Such continued conflict does provide Pakistan a small window to assert itself as the protector of the Islamic world. So, India may have to tread carefully to navigate the troubled waters and be prepared to evacuate Indian diaspora in case of imminent conflict situation. The month of August, 2024 is going to be critical for the Middle East. Even as Israel has endured some military losses, it has succeeded in eliminating the Hamas leadership to a large extent. Yet as the past has shown, new leadership of the Hamas is likely to be even more radical and hardliner. With so many players involved in the great game of power dynamics, the complexities may conflagrate the M-E like never before. India may have to keep its guard up and be prepared to deal with any contingency including playing the role of peace broker in the region.