Pakistan received another jolt to its internal stability when heavily armed Baloch gunmen killed at least 40 people (56 as per Baloch reports) in two separate attacks in the Balochistan province on August 26, 2024. The bloody attacks once again brought focus to the restive region of Balochistan which borders Afghanistan. After taking over of Afghanistan by the Taliban in August 2021, the internal security situation in regions bordering Afghanistan i.e. Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa has remained more volatile. The unrest in Balochistan is a tale of serious neglect by Pakistan Government, since it became part of Pakistan in 1948. Now China is also intricately involved in the region, courtesy CPEC and Gwadar Port. Balochistan was part of undivided India under British rule at the time of Partition. Once India and Pakistan were divided, the main leader of Balochistan, the Khan of Kalat announced formation of an independent state. It was not liked by Pakistan as Maharaja Hari Singh signed Instrument of Accession for Kashmir with India in October 1947. A lot of pressure was exerted on the Khan of Kalat by Pakistan and he finally signed the Instrument of Accession for Balochistan to become a province of Pakistan in 1948. At that point of time, Gwadar Port was part of Oman and after prolonged negotiations, Pakistan purchased Gwadar Port from Sultanate of Oman in 1958. The province of Balochistan has strategic importance. Located in the south west of Pakistan, it is the largest province of Pakistan in terms of area (44%) but is the least populated one (about 7%, 1.5 crore). It is bordered by Khyber Pakhtunkhwa to the north east, Punjab province to the east and Sindh province to the south east. It shares international boundary with Iran to the west and Afghanistan to the north. Arabian Sea is to its south which has the world’s largest deep-sea port, the Gwadar Port.

 

The land mass is extensive plateau of rough terrain, hills, mountains and basins. With extremely dry desert climate, only 5% of the land is arable and yet the economy is largely agrarian. Except for the capital city of Quetta and neighbouring areas, most of the province is backward by any standards of development. Balochistan is rich in mineral resources, such as copper, gold, coal and natural gas but exploitation of these resources has not seen much improvement in the lives of the local population. The province continues to have highest poverty rate in Pakistan and thus there is serious disgruntlement with the Pakistani establishment. There is a feeling of neglect and disappointment against Islamabad’s exploitative policies and thus the prevailing conditions have fuelled separatist movement in the province. There have been many conflict drivers in the region but rivalry of the Baluch with the Punjabi dominated establishment has been most intense. The provincial assembly has been dismissed many times in the past and there is little federal autonomy with the people. The Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) is the largest militant group and it has been fighting insurgency with the Pakistani establishment for an independent Balochistan and expulsion of Chinese from their soil. BLA has been designated as a terrorist organisation by Pakistan, USA and UK. Since the year 2000, BLA has conducted numerous attacks the Pakistan Army, police and other pro-Pakistani elements. The latest attacks are also attributed to the BLA and this time around, the dead were from the Punjab province as the militants off loaded passengers and killed them after identifying them as Punjabis. The attacks coincided with the 18 th death anniversary of ethnic Baloch leader Nawab Bugti who was killed in a military operation by Pakistan Army. After the current setback of targeted killings, the Pakistani military has launched an offensive against the BLA and claims to have killed 21 BLA militants.

 

The current streak of violence is likely to continue for some time. The current unrest has a worrying message for China, which is heavily invested in the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). The BLA is slowly gaining control of several highways across Balochistan which clearly dominate the CPEC. Pakistan PM Shehbaz Sharif called the attacks an attempt to “create distance between Pakistan and China”. China also issued a statement saying, “China is ready to further strengthen counter -terrorism security cooperation with the Pakistani side in order to jointly maintain regional peace and security.” The BLA offensive brought more embarrassment, as the attacks coincided with the visit of Commander of Ground Forces of PLA general Li Qiaoming to Pakistan. China is worried because it sees BLA a major threat to the CPEC. This 3000 km long infrastructure network project extends from Xinjiang region in western China to the Gwadar Port in the Arabian Sea.

 

This sea and land-based corridor is meant to secure the exclusive route for China’s energy imports from the Middle East. China fears that the existing route from Strait of Malacca could be blocked during war and thus the strategic importance of this corridor. This ambitious $ 62 billion project of China has faced many challenges. In fact, China is now believed to have proposed to deploy its military and security agencies to protect Chinese workers and Chinese interests. That is something India has to be vary of. India has always been opposed to the CPEC as the corridor passes through the POK and the areas ceded by Pakistan to China. After protracted diplomatic efforts, India has signed a deal with Iran to operate its Chabahar Port for 10 years, in May this year. This port is located in the southern Iran on the Arabian Sea and is in the vicinity of Gwadar Port. Chabahar Port has both commercial and strategic importance for India and the deal has not been liked by China and Pakistan. The deal protects energy interests of India as also ensures security of our maritime interests in the Arabian Sea. It also gives India a direct transit route to Afghanistan, bypassing Pakistan.

 

The deal was contemplated at a time when India had invested heavily for the infrastructure projects in Afghanistan before the Taliban era of August 2021. Still, the port holds great potential for India’s economic interests in the region. In hushed tones, Pakistan links India to the current unrest and volatile situation in Balochistan. New Delhi has rejected these claims outrightly. Given the current economic crisis in Pakistan, the unrest in Balochistan is a grim reminder for a country that officially supports ‘State sponsored Terrorism’. An unstable Pakistan is not in the interest of India but India has to safeguard its security and strategic interests in the borders and the region. A bankrupt Pakistan is almost a puppet state of China and India has now two major challenges: in the West from Pakistan and now also from the East in the form of Bangladesh. Both the neighbouring countries are now under the Chinese shadow and India has to do the balancing act with astute diplomacy and necessary military muscle.