Polls, Gambits & Gambles

 

 

THIS is the season of political gambits and gambles in India. Delhi has witnessed a loaded move by the Aam Aadmi Party, Jammu & Kashmir has opened a door for political parties to test their strength, Haryana is caught in the typical phase of political rebellions, and Maharashtra is treading an iffy zone with parties still gauging the public mood. Since the Lok Sabha poll results in June, election dynamics in the country have assumed an altogether intriguing layer, baring all the confusions and contradictions among the top political players.

 

The after-effects are being felt with pressing prominence specially in Maharashtra where inherent rivalries among coalition partners are finding unique ways of showing up. In Maharashtra, the political atmosphere still has an air of uncertainty with the ruling MahaYuti, comprising the Bharatiya Janata Party, Shiv Sena (Shinde group) and Nationalist Congress Party (Ajit Pawar group), rolling out schemes to recover the ground lost in the general elections, and the Maha Vikas Aaghadi, having NCP (Sharad Pawar group), Sena (UBT) and Congress, seeking a return to power after being ousted in the middle of their term. Both the coalitions are locked in intense discussions about election strategies and seat-sharing keeping the setbacks and victories in Lok Sabha elections firmly in the backdrop. Contradicting statements from alliance partners in both groups have added to the drama but with limited time in hand, none has the option of going solo. It will be an alliance Vs alliance fight for supremacy in Maharashtra but with many strings attached. Signals emerging from both alliances have shown that the MahaYuti has more or less settled its seat-sharing though a few blind spots still remain.

 

The Lok Sabha election setback has given the three partners a fair idea of what went wrong and what needs to be corrected in the Assembly elections. The grand launch of ‘Laadki Bahin’ scheme, giving Rs 1,500 per month to women, is a case in point. Though the partners have their own wish-lists to offer, with a hard negotiator like Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis backed by Union Home Minister Amit Shah monitoring the situation the BJP is set to have a final call in the allotments. For Chief Minister Eknath Shinde and Deputy Chief Minister Ajit Pawar, the Lok Sabha elections came with a real assessment of their reach in the State. Consequent developments in other political spheres including MLC elections and Rajya Sabha nominations have also come with their own message. The Yuti will come to the table with top gains already in their sleeves. That more or less settles the issue and also hands the partners a future course which might take a new turn depending upon the Assembly elections results. The real problem is in the Maha Vikas Aaghadi. All the three partners have their own trumpet to blow after the good showing in the Lok Sabha elections. Each would be vying for a bigger share in the pie, boasting the numbers achieved in the general elections against the powerful MahaYuti. It makes the future journey even complicated given the unease in the coalition over issues of ideas and ideologies. Innate contradictions have already started surfacing among the partners setting stage for an acrimonious conversation over sharing of seats. The problem with strange bedfellows is the overbearing sense of insecurity encompassing a relationship. Developments unfolding in the MVA also bear a solid stamp of distrust among the partners.

 

The perception of an impending danger is clearly visible in the repeated demand by Uddhav Thackeray to declare the Chief Ministerial face of MVA. It has been met with a calculated silence by the Congress and evasive replies by the NCP (SP). Sharad Pawar, the veteran of many an electoral battle, was quick to employ his shrewd tactics to send a subtle message to Thackeray by having a meeting with CM Eknath Shinde. It was a ploy from the typical Pawar playbook to keep partners on tenterhooks and draw a false move from them to be weaponised in the future. Quelling all such suspicions without ceding ground would demand some serious grappling with reality for all the partners. Then there is the imperious presence of the Congress party in the Aaghadi. The Grand Old Party scored the best among the MVA partners in Maharashtra in the Lok Sabha elections. It would naturally seek a leadership role in the alliance decisions, making the negotiations a complicated compromise.

 

Already, there have been unilateral claims by regional Congress leaders on seats of critical importance in the overall equation. It has left the alliance partners fuming and at the same time sparked infighting in the Congress party. Riddled with factionalism in almost every district in the State, Congress has a twin task at hand -- to get its house in order before sitting across the table with Pawar and Thackeray. The political season of gambit and gambles in Maharashtra has many sub-plots still on the board. It will be a fight between two alliances, it may end some coalitions but before the actual electoral battle it is bound to trigger an internal fight against distrust and insecurities for the Maha Vikas Aaghadi partners.n