THAT the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) passed a resolution pressing for withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine, was nothing more than a cosmetic formality in the current global context of power game. As the war between Russia and Ukraine completes three years, world leaders are expressing their support to and concern for Ukraine’s independence and overall security -- quite in tune with the UNGA resolution. Friends of Russia -- such as India -- have chosen to exercise their power to abstain from voting on matters of their choice. No matter that, the general consensus is that Russia must withdraw its forces from Ukraine and withdraw its aggression of that country. Russia is least likely to respect any such expression of world opinion , thanks mainly to its own threat perception and geopolitical priorities. Going by its record, and also by its mode of power-play, Moscow may hold back a fresh wave of aggression for a while. But that would not sort out the actual issue -- Ukraine tilting towards the West. Until that is reasonably sorted out, a Russian pull-out of troops from Ukraine may never be possible.

 

It is only when Moscow sees clear signs of defeat of western sponsorship of the country’s war effort. On this count, the western powers now stand exposed. Just a few days ago, Ukrainian President Mr. Volodomyr Zelenskyy had verbalised his displeasure about how his country was left to fend for itself by the western powers. United States President Mr. Donald Trump indicated a policy-shift by stressing that the US and Russia could sort out the issues directly and call an end to the current conflict -- without even the participation of Ukraine or Europe in the process. The very strangeness of the entire situation was something the world had never seen. Of course, following the World War II, the Allies and the Soviets had divided Germany into two parts, and had gone on to divide Berlin with a wall. In that entire process, as a loser of the war, Germany had no place or space to voice itself. In the current conflict Ukraine has shown remarkable belligerence -- if not a true sense of independence.

 

Naturally, it cannot be excluded from any negotiations (as the US and Russia seemed to have contemplated doing). Considering these facets of the situation, a UN resolution in favour of Russian troop pull-out from Ukraine appears only a cosmetic exercise that means little on the ground. The US also knows fully well that such resolutions have little actual value in hard, no-nonsense politics. Yet, the UNGA resolution has its own importance in the sense it reflects what the world thinks about an issue. In the short term, such an expression of world opinion may not have any immediate effect, all right. In the long term, however, no country would be able to ignore the global sentiment. Such a possibility offers a tenuous hope that the conflict may be brought to end in a foreseeable future. It can be said safely that the Ukraine conflict has arisen because of the western sponsorship of Ukraine’s daring of Russia. Its leaders felt that the membership of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) would make it militarily stronger against the Russian prowess. The West also felt that if it supported Ukraine, Russia would not muster enough courage to attack one of its former States. All those calculations and expectations proved wrong and what followed was an ugly conflict whose explanation or justification has become now very complicated. Seen from this angle, the UNGA resolution is nothing but a customary exercise with little hope of altering the course of contemporary geopolitics. The only hope is that the Russians may be goaded to think with an open mind and opt out of the conflict -- on their terms.